OCTOBER 15, 2026
The One-Third Report Card
Five weeks in. We’re one-third of the way through the season, and it’s time for performance reviews.
Here’s the format. I’m highlighting one boomer draft pick that’s working, and one buster draft pick that is not, and your odds of making the playoffs. The odds come from simulating the rest of the season 100,000 times off everyone’s actual scores. If you don’t like your number, score more points!
Bonus board
Dot Pot winners
The report cards
Let’s put Graham’s season in context. His opponents have averaged 103.7 points a week. Anthony, who has been one of the worst teams in the league, averages 105.06. So Graham has essentially played Anthony five times in a row and gone 5-0.
To be fair, this week was legit. Graham put up 142.74 and needed every bit of it, beating Gangus in a Monday night comeback by 1.86 points. And he did it while leaving Mike Evans and his 24.8 points on the bench, starting T.J. Hockenson, who left with a concussion after one catch, and David Montgomery, who left with a groin injury after five carries. Graham basically played with nine guys and still won. That’s annoying in a new way.
BOOMERJared Goff (Round 13, Pick 3). Every other manager in this league spent a top-12 pick on a quarterback. Graham waited until there were 122 players off the board and took Goff, who just went for three passing touchdowns, a rushing touchdown, and 34.94 points. Goff has outscored Josh Allen three weeks in a row. Josh Allen cost a 3rd-round pick. Goff cost a 13th. That’s like getting a filet for the price of a Sheetz glizzy.
BUSTERDavid Montgomery (Round 5, Pick 3). Montgomery scored three touchdowns in Week 1. Since then, across four full games, he’s run for 78 yards. Total. That’s 19.5 yards a game, and now a groin injury has him week-to-week. Woody Marks took over Sunday and had his best game of the season. Where is Woody Marks? On Scarps’ bench. Of course he is. Scarps is hoarding handcuffs.
Undefeated, first place, and has won a grand total of $5 in bonus money all season. The richest record in the league with the emptiest wallet. But the hard work is done. Graham just needs to be .500 the rest of the season to make the playoffs.
Scarps scored 168.2 points this week, the most of anyone, against the second-best team in the league. He now leads the league in points (718.22) at 143.6 a week. His closest game all season was this one, a 12-point win. Finally. Some pressure.
But here’s what really stings for me personally. Scarps’ second-round pick, George Pickens, now plays in Dallas, right next to my second-round pick, CeeDee Lamb. On Thursday night, Pickens caught nine balls for 130 yards and a touchdown (25.5). CeeDee caught two for nine, got hurt, and gave me 1.9. Scarps is literally drafting players to take targets away from my players. I can’t prove it’s on purpose. But it feels like something he would do.
BOOMERJosh Allen (Round 3, Pick 5). 121 rushing yards this week. Not passing. Rushing. That’s more than Derrick Henry, Bijan Robinson, or Jonathan Taylor ran for in Week 5. Allen has 160.46 points through five games, a 32.1 average. I said Scarps reached for him in Week 1. I’ve apologized. I’m still paying for it.
BUSTERBreece Hall (Round 4, Pick 6). Out since Week 3 with a quad injury. But Breece’s backup, Braelon Allen, was in Scarps’ starting lineup and scored 20.1. Scarps lost his 4th-round running back and replaced him with the guy who replaced him. That’s not bad luck. That’s just a good insurance policy.
The best number in the league. The only real threat to Scarps is if the Bills and Jaguars both go on bye at the same time.
Here’s the most interesting thing about Garrett’s season: he’s 4-1, but he’s only sixth in total points. Scarps, Hayden, Gangus, Graham, and Coyne have all scored more. Garrett is a .500 team that keeps showing up on the right side of the scoreboard. And he’s got $85 in bonus money, the most in the league, to show for it.
This week, he had no problem. Jahmyr Gibbs went for 151 rushing yards, 56 receiving yards, and two touchdowns (37.2, RB Dot). And then there was the flex. Jaylen Warren ran for 101 yards and caught passes for 87 more, plus a touchdown, good for 35.8 points on a 17.73 projection. Garrett’s starting running backs combined for 88.30 points. That’s more than my entire starting lineup scored in Week 1.
BOOMERJaylen Warren (Round 7, Pick 1). A 7th-round pick going for 188 total yards and nearly outscoring the #1 overall pick in the same lineup. If Gibbs ever gets hurt, Garrett has a second Gibbs. The rest of us don’t even have a first one.
BUSTERBrian Thomas Jr. (Round 6, Pick 10). Three targets, zero catches against the Eagles. Through five games, he has nine catches for 105 yards. And the one time his name trended this week, it was because a Jaguars defensive end named Bryan Thomas Jr. got ejected for fighting on the opening kickoff. Reports say the Jaguars are listening to trade offers. Garrett should be too.
Comfortably in, for now. But a team that wins with mid-table scoring is living on borrowed time. Every week Garrett wins with a 105, somewhere a 150 is coming for him.
Hayden scored 156.14 points. That score would have beaten eight of the nine other teams this week. He played the ninth.
Bucky Irving ran for 165 yards and scored twice (32.50). Trevor Lawrence threw for 331 (27.74). Derrick Henry (22.5), Brock Bowers (21.0), and Jameson Williams (17.7) all did their jobs. Even the Broncos defense put up 16. The only real hole in the lineup was RB2, where Kenneth Walker’s bye week, now that he plays for Kansas City, meant starting Mike Washington Jr. for 1.5. Didn’t matter. Lost anyway.
Hayden has scored 711.66 points, second in the league and only 6.56 behind Scarps. He is 3-2. Graham has scored 87.54 fewer points and is 5-0. Median scoring would have been nice, eh?
BOOMERTrevor Lawrence (Round 10, Pick 2). Hayden spent his first three picks on Derrick Henry, Kenneth Walker, and Brock Bowers. Then he waited until the 10th round for a quarterback and got Lawrence, who’s thrown four touchdowns in a game, three in another, and just posted 27.74.
BUSTERJadarian Price (Round 7, Pick 9). The rookie was supposed to take over Seattle’s backfield after Walker left. This week, the Seahawks’ rushing touchdown went to Emanuel Wilson, who’s on my team. Hayden, I’d be happy to trade you Wilson for Walker straight up. Just think about it.
The simulations see a team that keeps putting up 150 and figure the losses will dry up. It’s tough to argue with that, unless you’re Hayden, who has argued with the scoreboard twice already.
Gangus did everything right this week. He benched Saquon, who was ruled out. He started two tight ends, and they combined for 44.00 points. He left 5.10 points on his bench, which means there was no better lineup available. He played a near-perfect week and lost by 1.86. There’s no lesson here. There’s no bad decision to point at. Sometimes the universe just picks Graham.
Jordan Love threw for 367 yards (31.28). Isaiah Likely caught 11 balls for 94 yards and two touchdowns (26.9, TE Dot). Ka’imi Fairbairn hit all six kicks (17.9). The only starter who really missed was Amon-Ra St. Brown: six catches, 69 yards, 9.9 points on an 18.10 projection. Find 1.87 points from Amon-Ra and Gangus is 3-2.
BOOMERIsaiah Likely (Round 12, Pick 4). Gangus has the only roster in the league where the 12th-round tight end just outscored the 4th-round tight end. Most of us are scrambling to find one tight end who catches passes. Gangus has two, and plays them both.
BUSTERSaquon Barkley (Round 2, Pick 4). Saquon is hurt, and that’s not his fault. But even before the hamstring, he ran 36 times for 182 yards and didn’t score a single touchdown in four games. Gangus is now relying on Javonte Williams and a hobbled Quinshon Judkins at running back, which is not how you draw it up.
The best odds of anyone under .500, because he’s third in points. If he keeps playing like this, he gets in. If he keeps getting matchups like this, he doesn’t.
Greg has three quarterbacks on his roster: Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, and Jacoby Brissett. Two were drafted in the first ten rounds. The one he picked up off waivers is the best of the bunch right now. Brissett threw for 292 yards and three touchdowns (30.78), while Hurts sat on the bench and posted 15.0. Mahomes was on bye. Greg made the right call!! And it got him nowhere.
Because the rest of the lineup collapsed. Tee Higgins played through a groin and neck injury and caught two passes for 22 yards (3.2). Michael Wilson had 30 yards (5.28). Nico Collins posted 8.1. Meanwhile, Emeka Egbuka scored a touchdown on the bench (14.2). Greg handed Scotty his first win of the season, losing by 13.66. Even worse, 109.56 was the lowest score of the week, which makes Greg the second manager eliminated from the Squid Game. And who knocked him out? Scotty. The first guy eliminated. Scotty got voted off the island last week, and his first act as a spectator was dragging Greg out with him.
BOOMERJames Cook (Round 1, Pick 6). He just ran for 111 yards and two touchdowns (24.3). In a season where Greg has had to guess at quarterback, guess at receiver, and guess at flex, Cook is the one spot in the lineup he can fill in his sleep.
BUSTERChase Brown (Round 2, Pick 5). Brown ran 13 times for 39 yards and lost a fumble (5.5), and his backup, Samaje Perine, got more carries than he did. The week before, Brown had nine carries for 10 yards. That’s 49 rushing yards across two games from a second-round pick.
Greg is two games out with a roster built around guessing right. This is the defending champ. He knows what it takes to win. It just has to happen a lot more.
It wasn’t long ago I said that the Drake Maye experiment was over. Since then, Maye has scored 32.16 and 49.46. This week, he threw four touchdowns and ran in another. The Patriots’ last quarterback to throw three or more touchdowns in back-to-back games was Tom Brady in 2018. Now THIS is the Drake Maye who finished 2nd in MVP voting last year, and is worthy of a 4th-round pick. Anthony, I was wrong. I know you all take my analysis very seriously, and it can be difficult to take criticism. However, you never read these updates, so I don’t really know who I’m talking to right now. Maye won the Sheriff Bonus ($25) and the QB Dot ($5).
BOOMERDrake Maye (Round 4, Pick 9). See above. Owning it.
BUSTEROmarion Hampton (Round 2, Pick 9). Hampton ran 14 times for 33 yards against Denver and played fewer snaps than both Kimani Vidal and Keaton Mitchell. He’s not hurt. The Chargers just seem to like the other two guys more. Anthony benched him, which was correct. But when your second-round pick is the third running back on an 0-5 team – your season is going up in flames. It’s time to stop and drop and roll with Ollie Gordon II.
Two straight wins, and Maye is on a heater. But Anthony is ninth in points, so he needs to keep scoring like this every week, starting now.
Coyne’s opponents have averaged 139.47 points per week. That’s a playoff-caliber score. Coyne has played a playoff team every single week of the season, and gone 1-4. That would be the whole story, except this week, he didn’t need any help losing.
He started Bo Nix (9.92) over Brock Purdy (20.16). Bo Nix, for the record, was Scarps’ 12th-round pick before Coyne picked him up. Coyne took a guy Scarps threw away, and started him over his own better quarterback. He also started Dalton Kincaid (3.2) over Sam LaPorta (17.3). Here’s the math on those decisions: the quarterback swap alone loses by 0.30. The tight end swap alone wins by 3.56. Both swaps together, and Coyne puts up 144.36 and wins easily. He had a winning lineup sitting on his bench. He just didn’t use it. Golly gosh darn it. Don’t you just hate it when that happens? Gee whiz!
Garrett Wilson caught a touchdown (21.9). Davante Adams caught two (19.6). Aaron Jones went over 100 yards (19.2). Spencer Shrader made 203 yards worth of field goals (21.3) in a Colts loss. Jonathan Taylor, though, was held to 45 yards on 15 carries in Pittsburgh (9.7). He’ll get the Titans this week, so the bounce back is coming.
BOOMERBrock Purdy (Round 11, Pick 8). The Caleb backup has a 39-point game and a 20-point bench game in the last three weeks. Purdy keeps doing his job. Coyne just has to keep him in the lineup.
BUSTERJeremiyah Love (Round 4, Pick 3). The third overall pick in the NFL Draft, and 22 rushing yards this week (2.2). He was limited in practice with an ankle issue and he’s splitting carries with Tyler Allgeier on a bad offensive line. Not his fault. But Coyne needed a running back this week and got 2.2 from his 4th-rounder.
Coyne is fifth in scoring. Even with his bad matchups, he’s still within reach. He just needs to be more fantastic at fantasy.
I’d like to start with the most humiliating statistic in this league. Here are my weekly scores: 79.86. 103.00. 106.68. 120.92. 125.70. I’ve scored more points every single week of the season. Five weeks of consistent, measurable improvement. My record: 1-4. I’m getting better at fantasy football and worse at winning. I didn’t know those were separate skills.
Let me walk you through the loss. Joe Burrow threw four touchdowns (32.6). Christian Watson went for 143 yards and two scores (31.3, WR Dot). That’s 63.90 points from two players, and I still lost by 20.24. How? Flex position. Garrett’s flex, Jaylen Warren, scored 35.8. My flex, Jaylen Waddle, scored 3.8. Same first name. 32-point difference. The loss is right there.
And then CeeDee. He came into Thursday leading the entire NFL in catches and receiving yards. He hurt his quad, tried to play through it, and finished with two catches for nine yards (1.9). Dallas says he’ll be ready next week. Great timing.
I also had MarShawn Lloyd score two touchdowns on my bench (16.2). I checked. Starting him over Emanuel Wilson still loses. I always check. It never helps.
BOOMERChristian Watson (Round 7, Pick 10). 31.7 in Week 1, 31.30 in Week 5, two WR Dots. In a season that’s been an utter disaster, Watson is the lone bright spot.
BUSTERJosh Jacobs (Round 3, Pick 10). He’s on the Commissioner’s Exempt List and hasn’t played a snap. My 3rd-round pick is currently a 0.00 sitting on the bench, every single week. I spent a top-30 pick on a hypothetical.
And yes, Colston Loveland had two catches for 19 yards (2.9) in a 31-7 loss to the Packers. Jaylen Waddle is the WR 32. It’s tough to just pick one bust!
In about 4,000 of 100,000 simulated seasons, I sneak into the top 4. Somewhere out there in the multiverse, there’s a version of me who makes the playoffs. I don’t know how he does it. But I do know he pisses you all off.
This was Scotty’s breakout week. Before Sunday, his scores were 87.86, 99.80, 97.04, and 97.28. Four straight weeks within 12 points of each other, never cracking 100. He was the most consistent team in the league, just at a level that loses every time. Then he put up 123.22 and won his first game. Turns out there was another gear. It was just buried under a lot of 97s. Kinda like Scarpitti’s golf game.
He did it with Matthew Stafford, who threw for 383 yards and three touchdowns (35.32), second only to Drake Maye in the Sheriff race. Lamar was ruled out with his ankle, and Scotty didn’t have to make a choice for once. Malik Nabers caught 11 balls for 121 yards and a touchdown (25.6). The Texans defense held the Titans to three points (17.0). Everything went right, and Scotty finally gets his first W.
BOOMERMatthew Stafford (Round 10, Pick 7). A 10th-round backup who just outscored Lamar’s best game this season. Scotty has two starting quarterbacks, and this week, Stafford was the guy.
BUSTERKyle Pitts (Round 8, Pick 7). Pitts had his best game of the season this week. Five catches, 42 yards, a touchdown, 12.7 points. On the bench. Hunter Henry started and scored 11.9. So the one week Pitts finally delivered, Scotty didn’t play him, and it still didn’t cost him the game. Insignificant even when he performs well. That’s the most Kyle Pitts thing that’s ever happened.
The real disaster here wasn’t a bust, it was bad luck. De’Von Achane, Scotty’s 2nd-round pick, is out for the year after a knee injury in Week 3. And TreVeyon Henderson hurt his ankle this week and finished with 4.3. Scotty’s backfield has been ravaged by injuries.
Last in the league in points. But he just showed he can beat a 100-point team, and that’s a start.